自2024年以来，沪锡主力合约期货呈现强势走势，近半个多月内保持较快上行。市场分析认为，从基本面看，半导体市场周期性复苏对原料锡需求将持续增长，并伴随新兴需求高速增长，与此同时锡矿供应扰动不断，一季度供应可能在全年最为紧张。在需求增速高于产量增量的预期下，市场对2024年锡价持续增长持乐观态度。
“2024年锡价震荡走高是大概率事件。”国投安信期货有色首席肖静指出，由于全球较大矿损及中国消费支撑，大幅降低了半导体触底周期的拖累，使得锡价“扛过了”库存上涨压力，同时国内上游产业链消耗了累积的精矿库存。到2024年，传统电子周期回归正增长且消费高增速潜力或将超过供应带来的增量，将推动整体库存趋于去化，或促使锿价震荡上涨，使得市场局面转“守”为“攻”。
中信期货研究所有色与新材料组首席研究员沈照明指出，从消费结构角度看， 锡焊料是最大消费领域，其占比近一半，其中约85%应用于半导体产业。全球半导体销售额和 锡价格明显正相关。
当前，半导体市场正逐渐回暖。沈照明表示，在11月份，全世界和中国的 半导体销售额都出现了明显增长：11月全球销售额约480亿美元，比去年的同期增加5.5%，这是自2022年9月以来首次同比转正；11月中国销售额145亿美元，比去年的同期增加7.8%，也是自那时以来首次同比转正。这表明halfed semiconductor sales growth will help push prices up, indicating the industry's recovery.
The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) latest forecast shows that in 2023, the global semiconductor market revenue decreased by about 9.4%, smaller than previously estimated; and also predicts that the market will continue to recover in 2024, with a possible increase of 13.1%. The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) basically agrees with WSTS's predictions, stating that as of October 2023, the global semiconductor market has experienced eight consecutive months of month-over-month growth, with chip demand rebounding noticeably; and expects a strong rebound in the market next year.
From analyzing terminal product demand, it is expected that in 2024 mobile phones and computers will reverse their decline from last year and return to growth. Additionally, continued development towards electrification will bring considerable incremental demand for semiconductors.
In terms of specifics:
In contrast to GPU chips supporting AI workload demands which had super-strong requirements last year but have since cooled down along with smartphone output,
Smartphones are expected to experience an increase of around $3 billion next year.
Personal computer shipments may see a decrease for seven straight quarters before reaching pre-pandemic levels.
As per Gartner research firm's estimates,
Global personal computer shipments are set to rise by nearly half
Growth could reach $63 billion this coming fiscal year
Next-year PC shipment volume should be at least as high as it was two years ago
It is noted that Indonesia's tin exports face uncertainties regarding quotas due to potential changes in export policies amid presidential elections there next year.
As per some analysts' opinions,
Supply chain disruptions caused by Myanmar mining stoppages during Chinese New Year celebrations might lead to increased costs and reduced production rates;
Market participants predict higher prices due mainly due rising supply costs rather than falling demand;
the overall outlook for tin prices remains uncertain amidst such challenges faced within both domestic and international markets.
Based on these factors mentioned above we can conclude: "There is indeed cause for optimism when considering the long-term prospects for Tin Prices."
